Determining and predicting the current potential and future distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly [Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann)] in Niğde and its region using maximum entropy algorithm

Abstract

Mediterranean fruit fly [Ceratitis capitata Wied. (Diptera: Tephritidae)] is one the important pests of fruit and  vegatables found in the world and Türkiye. It is predicted that this pest will spread in different regions of Türkiye due to the effect of climate change. This study was carried out in apple orchards in Çamardı, Altunhisar and Merkez districts in 2022-2023 in order to determine the presence of Mediterranean fruit fly in Niğde province. Mass trapping (Decis trap – Bayer®) were used to determine the population density of Mediterranean fruit fly in the region. Mass trapping were placed in the southeastern part of the trees, 1-1.5 m above the ground in the direction of the prevailing wind, 1/4 of the inner part of the crown projection, in a way that would represent the entire orchards and at different points. Adult populations of the pest were checked week intervals throught June –October. The presence of the species in the region was detected in both years. In this study, Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt – 3.4.4) algorithm produced maximum entropy models for the distribution areas of Mediterranean fruit fly due to global climate change in the period of 2050 (for the average of 2041-2060) and 2070 (for the average of 2061-2080). As a result of the study, it was determined that the flights of Mediterranean fruit fly, which is known to have high damage on peach and pear fruits in Niğde province, first started in July. It was observed that the density of the pest increased in mid-September and maintained its situation until the end of October, and that it was found on apple fruit because it could not find another suitable host in the region during this period. However, the pest did not cause any visible damage in apple orchards in the current situation. The presence of Mediterranean fruit fly was high in the region where the study was conducted. Therefore, it is thought that the damage rate may increase in the near future years. This study is the first record of Mediterranean fruit fly presence in Niğde province and will have an important place for its future distribution.